What’s the Deal? The Dilemma Toto faces as who to Sign.

In the past few weeks, with the summer and silly season fast approaching, the question of the Mercedes seat has come up. What was supposed to be a quick and easy sign for George Russell has slowly turned into a gossip fulled drama as the name of Max Verstappen has been dropped repeatedly. But how did this start and, more importantly, how will it end? Read on to find out.

George Russell and Max Verstappen are known for their feud, originating at the end of the 2024 season / Photo Credit: PlanetF1

What’s the situation?

Russell currently has is a two-year contract up until the end of 2025. It follows another two year deal, (from 2022-2023) where he replaced the steady and consistent Valterri Bottas.

The logical next step for both the team and driver is a contract extension. George has been one of the most outstanding drivers this year, hauling his less competitive car to podiums, and even a win in Canada. During a year where the Mercedes cars  are often slower and disadvantaged compared to other drivers, some argue (myself included) that their favourable second position in constructers standings is largely due to Russell’s skillfull and quick driving. Many pundits even argue that George is the 2^nd best performing driver this season, a feat that should almost guarantee him a seat next year, right?

Not when your competition is the best performer.

Max Verstappen is a driver who outclasses the field at every turn. From childhood, he has been the kart/car racing ahead of everyone. With a shocking promotion to F1 in 2016 at the age of 17 (that made the FIA change regulations to prevent younger drivers from driving in F1 in the future), Max has shown he belongs here. From a win in his debut race at Red Bull to masterclasses in the wet, there is no one who can deny the Red Bull racer’s pure talent.

Such talent has been especially recognised during the last few years. The Adrian Newey designed car might have accounted for some of the dominance, but without the consistency and determination of Max, we definitely would not have seen such an annihilation of the grid as we did in the 2023 season. Even during the last two years when the car has been difficult to drive, Max has skilfully taken it to podiums and pole positions that make fans and fellow drivers alike look on in awe.

If you are Toto Wolff, it’s no shock that you would try to sign him.

He had a go last year, with rumours swirling that a less than stellar year for the Red Bull team would provoke Max to move over to Mercedes to replace the outgoing Lewis Hamilton. However, both Max and Mercedes put that to bed with Max giving one of his common scathing answers to a journalist in a press conference and Toto signing his prodigy Andrea Kimi Antonelli soon after.

This year though, things look serious.

Toto himself has confirmed that talks with the Russell camp are delayed due to Mercedes being in discussions with the Verstappen team, keeping George’s future as a contingency. Rumours have really swirled in the last week when Max’s plane stopped off for a quick trip to Sardinia where Toto just happened to be .

Despite the confirmed conversations, some reports have suggested otherwise and there still remains the rather large problem of Verstappen’s current contract. He is still contracted to Red Bull until 2028 (with the incredibly long contract signed in 2023), with a hefty buyout clause (estimated at 102million), a huge barrier to his exit. However, insiders have confirmed that Summer Break performance clauses exist, meant to give Verstappen a path out, should the performance of the team drop too far. A string of poor performances from the team’s second driver and an almost undrivable car means that Red Bull sit at a poor fourth in the constructer’s standings, over 420 points behind the leaders McLaren.

Red Bull as a unit are desperate for Max not to leave. The bosses, sources say, have always understood perfectly well the trouble they would be in should Max move on and leave them.

Whilst certainly not the first to be brought up through the infamous Red Bull driver program, Max is definitely their most successful story. Helmut Marko himself played a key role in securing Max’s F3 (GP3) and then F1 seat, marking the start of a close relationship between the two. Since Max was brought into the senior team after he impressed during his first race for the Red Bul team (with a win in his debut race in Spain), the team has slowly, but surely shifted the centre point and focus to him. Even Daniel Riccardo, the kid who many thought would bring Red Bull back to it’s former glory was pushed aside for the new, brash Dutch kid who drove without a care what anyone said about him. This culture has strengthened as the years have gone, evidenced by the way every second driver who attempts to drive that car struggles and drowns. Gasly, Albion, Perez, Lawson and now Tsunoda; no one but Max can conquer that Redbull car.

Recently, the (almost desperate) actions from Red Bull have gotten crazier. Christian Horner’s sacking, conveyed to the press last week is highly likely to be a move to please the Verstappen camp after reports that they had not been happy with Horner’s current decisions and moves. Despite the team’s claims it was for ‘other reasons’ most news outlets agree on the fact that the move was almost purely to keep the Verstappens happy.

However, is this enough?

The new set of regulations next year promise a complete overhaul. A new engine, simpler floor and other unknowns promises to pull every team back to square one, and if reports are to be believed, Mercedes have gotten it right. As one of the largest power unit manufacturers in F1, they can optimise this to ensure that the engine they make suits their car the best and for Max Verstappen, another chance to chase at the title won’t sound too bad. Furthermore, Red Bull’s decision to make their own power units for the first time (incidentally pioneered by Christian Horner) means that their reliability and power are complete unknowns for the sporting body. However, as most people familiar with the sport can tell you, without experience, you’re quite unlikely to do well.

Why Mercedes are being Cautious?

When crafting their future line up, Mercedes have to work through the delicate balance of proven talent (George Russell), the newcomer prodigy (Kimi Antonelli) and a world champion (Max Verstappen). Whilst there is a question mark over Antonelli, it is incredibly faint. Like Russell, Antonelli is a product of the Mercedes junior program, and his arrival in F1 was long awaited. Like Max, he skipped a feeder series (F3 in this case, seeing him go straight into F2), and has been the apple of Toto’s eye from far before he became a common name in F1 media. With all the time and resources that have been directed into building up his career, it is unlikely that Mercedes will throw that all away and instead they will keep Kimi for his full 2-year contract.

Another reason that a Russell-Verstappen combination is highly unlikely is due to the tension between the two. The most commonly marked starting point is last year, when a heated steward room debate between Max and George lead to Verstappen calling out his “duplicity” to the media. A tit-for-tat took shape in the media with both George and Max making snarky comments about each other to the press with the world watching on in half-humor, half-shock. Russell even looked to carry it on with the drama this year, with some initial comments to the media during the F175 event in London. Despite this, tensions had deescalated for a while, until they flared right back up in Spain when Verstappen purposely divebombed Russell after he was required to give the place back after some questionable driving. This saw him tumble down the order after a 10-sec penalty and many a meme being created with the incident being set to Russell’s famous words of last year – “When anything is not going his way, he lashes out with unnecessary anger and borderline violence” (which I laughed at a few times!)

It is safe to say that both are not the best of friends and that is another factor circulating through Toto’s head when considering driver pairings. Having lived through the years of 2015-2016 with Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg it’s safe to say that he has had enough of teammate battles. (NB: Surprisingly, Kimi Antonelli gets along well with both. I often think he looks like a divorced child when with the two, like in the Canada cooldown room). Despite this, Russell has said that he’s content at Mercedes even if Verstappen joins, noting “I’m happy to be team-mates with anybody.” Verstappen too has stated since Spain that their relationship is “all good” off track, and that he holds no grudge.

What Comes Next?

Russell has said that he expects a decision in the next couple of weeks and that he can “strongly see his future at Mercedes”, If sources are to be believed, Mercedes did offer him a contract, the infamous ‘1+1’ that Russell turned down as he wanted more “security” with his seat going forward. And, even if there are countless rumours swirling about everywhere, Verstappen isn’t expected to move until 2027 at least. Mercedes now have to decide whether to sign Verstappen and potentially shuffle the seats, or to commit to the current pairing of Russell+Antonelli.

Conclusion

The drama is rooted in Mercedes’ strategic dilemma: locking in Russell versus keeping doors open for Verstappen. Russell remains confident and loyal, but Mercedes’ interest in Verstappen has cast a shadow, creating a tense yet tactical stalemate. With summer break clauses and a pivotal 2026 season ahead, the next weeks could reshape the F1 grid dramatically.