How Many Stops Do You Think It Should Take to Win in at Circuit of the Americas (COTA)?....... One or Two!

The 56-lap 2026 United States Grand Prix at COTA was less a race of split-second reaction times and more an intricate, high-stakes game of strategic chess played across 5.513 kilometres of rough, bumpy tarmac.

COTA’s physical design creates a steep climb of 30.9 metres from the start line to turn 1. Despite being a sharp left-hand corner akin to a hairpin, turn 1 allows drivers to brake later than usual as gravity helps slow the cars down. But late braking required hard braking, generating extreme lateral and longitudinal forces, placing severe thermal stress on the tyres across sector 1.

Look back view of the COTA track elevation from the race start to turn 1 left hand hairpin bend

Profile view of the COTA circuit elevation

With air temperatures at 28°C and track surface temperatures hovering at 42°C, cars at the front of the pack were forced into a compromise between maximising lap speed versus maintaining the durability of the tyres over a long stint to avoid a drop off in performance during the race.

Typically, teams opt for the 1 stop strategy although the offset in rubber condition does make the 2 stop strategy look favourable for attacking cars. 

Mercedes approached the afternoon with a clear plan. Having exhausted his freshest sets of soft tyres during qualifying, pole-sitter Kimi Antonelli committed to a medium-to-hard 1 stop strategy. Starting on the C3 Medium compound tyres, it was essential that Antonelli managed his rear slip angles through COTA's sweeping micro-sectors. 

By managing his slip angles Antonelli was able to control the lateral force experienced by the tyres an in doing so maintain the core tyre temperatures strictly within their optimal 105°C to 125°C operating window.

Impact of slip angel on lateral force

Having kept the thermal degradation of the tyres stable, Antonelli requested an extended first stint over the radio.

The strategy being that, by delaying his pit stop to until lap 24, Mercedes could create an opportunity to run a 1 stop versus a 2 stop race and in doing so save at 22.5 seconds which is normally required for each pit stop. 

Following the pit stop, Antonelli rejoined on the durable C2 Hard compound tyres. During his second and final 32-lap stint, Antonelli maintained an average pace of 1:38.850. The Hard tyre's lower degradation rate allowed him to take the checkered flag with a comfortable margin of victory.

Degradation levels of different tyre compounds

Red Bull opted for a far more aggressive posture centred around the high-grip C4 Soft compound, which offered a distinct initial performance advantage off the line. Starting P2 on fresh C4s, Max Verstappen aimed to establish an early gap and force his rivals into reactive strategy calls. However, the soft compound's narrow 90°C to 110°C thermal window quickly proved vulnerable under COTA’s heavy braking zones. Core rubber temperatures surpassed 120°C, triggering severe thermal degradation that degraded tyre performance—double the wear rate of the Hard compound. Trapped by overheating rear tyres and an escalating undercut threat from behind, Red Bull was forced to adjust their plan to a multi-stint strategy, bringing Verstappen in early on lap 13 and again on lap 31 leaving Verstappen compromised in the closing stages.

Ferrari, meanwhile, managed 2 stop strategy across both cars using a combination of soft to medium to hard compounds to respond to evolving track conditions. Charles Leclerc retained a set of fresh C2 Hard tyres for his final stint from lap 40, rejoining the track late with a light fuel load under 25 kilograms and benefiting from a heavily rubbered-in surface. Leclerc exploited maximum mechanical grip to deliver a dominant late-race surge. Running up to 1.4 seconds per lap faster than Verstappen's worn tyres, Leclerc set the official fastest lap of the Grand Prix on lap 42 with a 1:37.976 closing down the gap to the leaders and executing a decisive overtake into turn 12 on lap 49 to secure a second place on the podium.

2026 USA Grand Prix Pit Stop and Tyre Strategy

COTA, unlike previous races, was a brilliant example of how strategy can be so crucial in tough moments. During several races, both this year and in previous years, many fans, such as myself, have seen the one-stop as a superior strategy with almost every team who chooses to take that risk, despite any alternative predictions, typically coming out on top by a wide margin. However, at COTA, the delta between the 1 and 2 stop strategies were closer than ever, and, if the virtual safety car hadn’t impacted Charles’ final chase of Antonelli, it is highly likely we would have seen a Ferrari win. This competition between alternate strategies is a part of F1 that has been missing for so long, and something that many fans would be glad to see back due to the added tension it creates during the race.